duediligence @duediligence
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Mkt has CL against trendline (on 30-min chart) in anticipation of this report.
HO, RB both tighter against crude today. Brent was flat to crude, now over. Contango lower today.
Dollar also up...if crude doesn't get a shocking number from EIA as APIs imply, then likely headed down for the moment.
Crude was able to climb up to 71.6 range this morning. Oil volatility as seen thru OVX...46%. Equities falling out of bed, no impact (yet)
API high draw number due to high(er) refinery run rates and and low imports last week. Apparently window has closed on imports
Good morn. Bloomberg survey has roughly 2 mil bbl build in petro complex, but api is showing a massive 6 mil draw.
RT Agreed @infovestment $QM_F the trend is still up,despite the TL break,trend change confirmation wld be in a close below 66
Very telling Platts article on Chinese: http://bit.ly/G47Ow Very good Pettis article mentiond earlier: http://bit.ly/joax4
I remain LT bearish crude oil. My ?: What has changed outside of sentiment improving from "jump from rooftops" bearish to less bearish?
...with command and control economies driving commodities into spec frenzy, but reading Pettis doesn't give me a good feeling about Chinese.
It takes forever (2-3 years) for commodities to recover fully from a credit boom. Of course, this time can be different...
...the context for any real bear move will have to be of mild duration. But, CL needs healthy correction to support this fundamental buzz.
My "measured move" tops CL out at 71. However, technical analyst ranges of $69-mid 70s. With all of the LT bullish talk....
I will say stats of a significant bear move in CL improving considerably. Contract rollover may provide a good opportunity.
Remember that we are in the Goldman roll period. Probably be a good amount of chop. Lovely how they issued their $85 forecast on Thursday.
I don't think that much can be made of Friday's CoT report WRT crude oil.
...or at very least less upward trend momentum. Analysts claim there was a dark cloud cover on Friday's daily chart, but I don't see it.
Oil volatility index OVX is up 1.2% into the pit close. Several indicator trendline breaks on CL may be indicating consolidation...
Today however, different story; CL rallying into afternoon session. HO has gotten stronger today, and HU weaker.
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