Interesting from @AnnaEconomist@economics:
"A large positive exogenous population shock may feel “stagflationary” in the early stage, as it creates upward pressure on inflation and wages, while raising the unemployment rate — only to turn into an economic boom later"
Utilities sector outperformed today while REITs fell to last place (and still in last place YTD); Utilities leading MTD, followed by Tech and Comm Serv … Russell 2000 Growth fell most today and continues to underperform its large-cap counterpart by nearly 5% YTD
GDPNow from @AtlantaFed now up to +4.2% (q/q ann.) for 2Q2024 … consumption still responsible for most of current estimated boost; change in private inventories quite substantial for now
Price/sales ratio for Russell 1000 Growth (blue) is much higher than ratio for Russell 1000 Value (orange), but latter is more stretched relative to its own history
Looking at change in labor force between February 2020 and March 2024, Austin had largest % jump while Los Angeles had largest % decline per @Moodys and @BLS_gov data
Even though consumer sentiment (orange) has gone through a massive drawdown and is still off its prior high, that hasn’t stopped consumers from using credit cards (blue) this cycle
Data from @Bloomberg Intelligence show that in 2023, only 40% of cheapest stocks in Russell 3000 outperformed broader index … down from a stronger 54% in 2021
Growth in consumer credit has cooled off over past couple years, with year/year change coming down to +2.3% in March (down considerably from prior high)
Roughly 1 in 5 new mortgages issued last year went to low-income Americans, bringing group’s piece of homebuying pie down to where it was in 2018 … progress that group made during pandemic has faded due to high home prices and elevated mortgage rates per @Redfin
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