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Louise Doughty @ivoryflame

lessthan a minute ago

@paulb6762 😂

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Louise Doughty @ivoryflame

lessthan a minute ago

@Covboy_dennis I live This Night

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A team tends to always overvalue its own homegrown talent. This leads to bad decisions such as keeping a player when they should be used as trade assets. It sometimes works but oftentimes it blows up in their face. Just another facet of Spence and the Kings to ponder.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

Thus, I believe the Kings should try to trade Spence. When your calculated current value is that high, selling high rarely results in regret even when they outperform that value elsewhere because you've gotten back a ton of capital in return. Lastly ...

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

Even if they don't re-sign Roy, Spence's value may be at its highest point due to his age. He also has skills every NHL team wants and needs ... puck moving right shot defenseman with superb skating. He's a bit undersized but he's proven he can overcome it.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

The other factor that's considered is the continued investment part. At his position, there's Doughty, Roy (for now), Clarke, and future D-men (pipeline and future picks). If they re-sign Roy, Spence's position is bottlenecked.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

When a low pick becomes worth that much value, the team is inclined to sell high. The future years are risky. How much more value would Spence add on to his already high value? Not a whole lot. If the Kings can trade him for $18M or more worth of value in return that's a win.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

The typical low pick has a much lower baseline value. Its ceiling is $900k multiplied by 7 yrs then multiplied by % probability (5%). Using even numbers for ease this gets us to $3.5M value. Spence is worth $18-24M or nearly 9x this population value.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

His ELC was at age 19 so he's age 30 after team control and one UFA contract. Maybe he has one more contract so his value is between $18M and $24M. How a team views this value drives the decision to invest in him or sell high.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

When a mid or low round pick turns into an NHL player, it is a goldmine. Spence was a low #95 pick in the 4th round. Let's calculate a general number to assign Spence a value. Take 7 years multiplied by a minimum and it gets us to ~$6M. Add 4 yrs at $3M and the total is $18M.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

In the aggregate the number is around 25-30% or 1 in 4. Under Mike Futa the LA Kings batting avg was very high at 65%. This is why picks themselves have extrinsic value (not intrinsic). That's why picks are traded. Back to Jordan Spence.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

In general, draft picks are historically busts. The rate at which a drafted players makes it to the NHL and sticks through the 7-yr team control years and gets to UFA is very low. High picks: 50% Mid picks: 25% Low picks: 1-5% High is 1st round. Mid is 2-3. Low is 4+.

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Hardcore Doughty @calstanvard

4 minutes ago

🧵 KINGS AND JORDAN SPENCE No discussion of Jordan Spence's future can be held without starting with how players are valued by teams and companies using financial modeling. I'll go over the basics using samples based on hypothetical numbers.

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M. Frank Hegel @BackCzech4Check

5 minutes ago

@TheCultofHockey @edmontonjournal And can Edmonton with its 50-goal scorers solve Vancouvers goalie who has 9 career games played? Hit Hughes like they hit Doughty, this series is Edmontons.

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Louise Doughty @ivoryflame

9 minutes ago

@hla72dk @LesleyB58051421 🙌🏻🍷

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Andrew Doughty @_Andrew_Doughty

10 minutes ago

@pcgamer God I'd hate to be a game developer. Nothing is ever good enough, and players complain about literally anything and everything. All you people want "more more more" but don't even know what you want more of. And when it's given to you, ITS NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Lose/lose for devs.

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Doughtyj @DoughtyJ

10 minutes ago

Back to Theme Park.

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Doug Doughty @_dpdoughty

11 minutes ago

@FarmrHuntr We have a sense of urgency to keep livestock contained…need that same sense of urgency to keep soil and nutrients from leaving our fields.